Bold take: Ryan Poles might finally break his rule and trade up in the first round. Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles has built his draft approach around consistency since taking the job in 2022. He hasn’t chased after mirages by shifting away from the class’s strengths, and he’s shown notable restraint in the early rounds. Over the last three drafts, Poles hasn’t moved up on the opening night; his only real action was in 2023 when he traded down twice. In 2024 and 2025, he stayed put and picked the top player on his board.
That approach made sense when Chicago occupied the top 10 picks each year. There was little need to leap up when strong talent was expected to be available. Early indicators from Caleb Williams, Darnell Wright, and Rome Odunze suggested this was a prudent path. But this year is different. Chicago holds the 25th pick in the first round, their lowest position since 2011. And that isn’t the only reason Poles might pounce if the chance arises.
The second reason lies in the draft class itself.
Poles faces tough odds of landing a true, elite first-round talent.
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller annually breaks down who actually belongs in Round 1 versus who merely gets a first-round grade. He identifies a subset of players he considers true first-rounders—the ones who would be first-round selections regardless of the year. His standard is whether a player would have been a first-round pick in each of the past five classes. For the 2025 class, Miller awarded only 13 true first-round grades, the lowest total he’s ever given. The 2026 class currently has even fewer at 11.
That’s a big deal for Bears fans. Last year, two of Miller’s 13 true first-rounders were Colston Loveland and Luther Burden; the same pattern held for Williams and Odunze in 2024. The lone exception was Wright in 2023. Miller’s method has proven reasonably reliable—most of his 13 were Top 20 picks, and this year the margin for error is even thinner.
Here are the 11 players Miller has flagged as true first-round talents this year, and where they were picked: Travis Hunter (2nd), Abdul Carter (3rd), Will Campbell (4th), Mason Graham (5th), Ashton Jeanty (6th), Armand Membou (7th), Kelvin Banks (9th), Colston Loveland (10th), Tyler Warren (14th), Jalon Walker (15th), Jahdae Barron (20th), Luther Burden (39th), Will Johnson (47th).
Notably, Burden and Johnson faced non-performance obstacles—character concerns in Burden’s case and health issues in Johnson’s case. Those kinds of red flags aren’t present among Miller’s 11 names this year, which makes the Bears’ decision to move up more compelling than ever. If one of these players slides enough to threaten a late-teens selection, Poles could consider climbing the board.
Poles isn’t naïve about relying solely on the board. There’s a strategic reason he reportedly sought a second-round move last year, aiming for Ohio State running back TreyVeon Henderson. Henderson landed at #38, just ahead of Chicago’s #39 slot, and Chicago did land Burden instead. That experience shows Poles isn’t averse to risk, especially when the payoff could be a true difference-maker.
This year, the stakes are higher. Chicago just posted a strong playoff run and looks like a team on the cusp of legitimate Super Bowl contention. To push over the edge, another breakout player could be the missing piece.
If Poles is willing to trade up, where could he realistically go? A practical benchmark is the 2017 season when the Houston Texans, holding the 25th pick, traded a future first-rounder to move up to #12 to draft Deshaun Watson. If Poles is determined to secure one of the 11 true-first-round talents, the most plausible target range would be around picks 11–13, depending on which player drives the demand and how the teams in that window value him.
Three players emerge as Bears’ likely trade-up targets
We can narrow the possibilities by excluding positions Chicago already has well-covered or doesn’t prioritize in this draft. The Bears are solid at quarterback, wide receiver, and running back, so players like Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love, Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate, tight end Kenyon Sadiq, and linebacker Arvell Reese (though he has some positional versatility) aren’t in consideration. Sonny Styles is also unlikely, given the depth at safety and the premium on other positions. That leaves three plausible targets:
- Rueben Bain Jr., Miami edge rusher
- David Bailey, Texas Tech edge rusher
- Caleb Downs, Ohio State safety
Bain and Bailey bring edge-rushing explosiveness at premium positions, and either would address Chicago’s need for a dynamic pass rusher. Downs, meanwhile, is widely regarded as one of the best safety prospects in years and could step in as a plug-and-play starter. Given Chicago’s uncertain safety future with possible departures of Byard or Brisker, Downs represents a high-floor, immediate-impact option.
If one of those names lands in the 11–13 range this April, don’t be surprised if Poles starts dialing to move up and secure one of them.
About the author: Erik Lambert is a football writer with more than 15 years covering the Chicago Bears. He holds a master’s in the Teaching of Writing from Columbia College Chicago, and his work on Sports Mockery has drawn millions of views. He contributes analysis, context, and roster insight across various platforms, including major radio and podcast appearances.
